TX-28: Early Voting So Far In Laredo Down

Ciro Rodriguez lost his reelection race to turncoat, closet Republican, Henry Cuellar by a mere 58 votes in the last cycle. He accomplished this by gaining an 86%-14% vote advantage in that part of Webb County within the 28th Congressional District. Henry swamped Ciro in Laredo, despite Laredo's liberal, true-blue, voting history, because he is the home-boy. But Henry can't possibly do better in Laredo, where his voting record has been highly publicized. The turnout in Laredo, nonetheless, is a key to this race, and so far it looks good for Ciro. Check-out why below the fold.

As of yesterday, Webb County had logged 13,018 early votes, according to the Webb County Elections Administrator's Office. This compares to 13,366 who voted at that point in early voting in the last cycle. This means that early voting has lagged by almost 3% in Webb County so far, when compared to the 2004 race. While there are still 4 days left in early voting, where 21,781 early votes were logged in Webb County in 2004, the numbers so far point to a less than robust turn-out in Laredo this year. This can only help Ciro.

Webb County had a decent over all turn-out in 2004 of 33,276 votes. Of these, 15,148 (or 45%) were cast in the 28th District. A race for sheriff was hotly contested in 2004, which tweaked voter turnout across the county, including that part of Webb County within the 28th. However, in this cycle an open county commissioner's seat has drawn 6 candidates, who are proving to be responsible for a disproportionate share of the early voting so far, and who will likely do the same in the overall votes cast. Unfortunately for Henry, though, this county commissioner's precinct is not a part of the 28th District.

Cuellar is letting other campaigns do the work for him again this year. He let the Tony Sanchez for Governor campaign bring out the votes in Webb County in the 2002 general election (Sanchez is a Laredoan who was then running against Rick Perry), and benefited from his home-boy status in almost upsetting Republican Henry Bonilla in the old pre-Delay 23d District, when all of Webb County was in the 23d. He did the same when he sat back and let the sheriff candidates bring out the Laredo votes, which allowed him to upset Ciro. He seems a bit bewildered today, when there seems to be no one able to carry the load for him again.

The second part of Ciro's strategy, bringing out the votes in South San Antonio, is still crucial. So pick up the phone and join the remote phone banking effort, or drive down to the Riverwalk, and get involved in Ciro's GOTV effort.